There are a lot of tricks, tips, methods and strategies on how to win a bet every time or how to make money with sports betting on the net and on the lips of many fans. Many of them, even, acome to propose systems to earn money in a continuous and systematic way, drawing newcomers to the world an idyllic paradise of unlimited profits.
The Easiest Sports Bets to Win
Soccer Betting or European Football Betting – This is the most popular sport that bettor choose to place their money. Also tennis is attractive for online betting, because of the small odds and high chances to win . So the best sport to bet on to make money depends only from the perspective of the experience and information you have
Betting online is an arduous and difficult task, in which most bettors are doomed to fail. The individual bettor faces companies with huge money making sports betting bids dedicated to research and technology. There is no news that moves in the world of sports that do not know, or data or statistics that does not appear in its powerful information servers before it reaches the public. Their level of technology reaches the point that the goals scored live are usually updated on their website before they are even sung by the television announcer. The odds offered are calculated with a powerful mathematical and probabilistic arsenal behind, to which the spread or margin of the bookmaker is added. Bettors not only face statistics, but participate in a game that is not zero sum, but unfavorable odds on average. The profits thrown by bookmakers at the end of the year come precisely from the losses of the great mass of bettors. And these benefits are certainly substantial.
However, there is a minority of individual bettors who earn money continuously and sustained over time. Even, that allows them to live on their bets and dedicate themselves professionally to it.
How is it possible to win in online betting?
There are three basic loopholes through which we can be part of that minority that makes money through betting. Is not this contradictory with the above? No. No one should be deceived, the bookies can not be beat systematically and in the long term. But the rest of the bettors, yes. These three methods are simple and known by the true professionals, who use them successfully in their operations. And they are the only ones with which we can establish entry and exit strategies for our profitable long-term bets.
Let’s see, then, the three ways to ally with the betting companies and obtain benefits thanks to it. And as a bonus, we will give you additional advice to start betting directly with benefits.
Compass – Directional or Value Bets Directional bets simply consist of betting on a result. Behind underlies the basic mechanism of betting: we put money in favor of a certain team, if I win I take it multiplied by the quota, if not, I lose it. We play, then, simply against the probability of the result, something that betting houses handle perfectly.
Q: Does it make economic sense to bet in this way?
A: Yes, in only one situation: when the implicit probability of the odds offered by the online betting companies is less than the real probability that the result will happen. In this case, it is said that the bet has value.
With an example, imagine a football match: Real Madrid – Real Betis Balompié. Assume that the fee for the victory of the Real Madrid is 2. This means that the probability that the bookmakers assigns to this result is 50%. Therefore, it only makes sense to bet if the real probability of the Real beating Betis is higher than 50%.
This is not a frequent situation, but rather the opposite. As we explained earlier, betting business have enormous human and technical resources, so they manage statistics and probability better than anyone else. However, it does sometimes happen that the betting house is forced to move the odds out of what the statistics mark them, and that situation can be created precisely by the erroneous estimates of the mass of bettors. If a high part of the money is concentrated in certain results, it is very common for the house to modify the quotas of the complementary results to make them more attractive to other bettors and balance their risk, thus providing a long-term profit opportunity .
Again with our example, if most of the betting money goes to Betis draws or wins, our bookmaker can choose to offer odds of 2.1 or 2.4 that assume implicit probabilities of 46% and 43% respectively. With these quotas and a real probability of 52% it makes all the sense in the world to bet on the Real Madrid. The bet offers, then, value to the bettor, in Anglo-Saxon terms, its expected value or expected value is positive. To evaluate them, we have developed this method of analyzing the value of sports betting.
With this mechanism, the individual bettor helps the bookmaker to rebalance the market, and is positioned in fact against the other bettors.
In terms of investment, the word arbitrage is used when a secure profit can be obtained in situations in which two or more markets are decompensated among themselves. In bets, as a large market where events are bought and sold, it is possible – and very profitable – to apply this concept. Who would not be happy to find an opportunity to benefit betting arbitrage or how to win safe bets from football and other sports? To do this, we must simply find a match where the opposite results give us quotas whose sum of probabilities is less than 100%. Or put another way, where the net spread is negative.
Tips to Win Football Bets
Just a moment. If we had left that the spread was the margin of the betting house … no house will offer quotas for a match where it loses insurance!
In effect, no. The key is to compare the odds of various bookmakers. No bookmakers will give us their margin, but it may be possible that due to the dynamics of the market, two bookmakers are forced to adjust their odds so that one bettor takes a position in a bookmaker, and the opposite in another , so that regardless of the result you can get a benefit.
With our football example: if a bookmaker offers a 2 share for the victory of the Barcelona, and another house offers 2.4 odds for the draw or loss of the real, investing 100 euros in the first bookmaker and 83 in the second , we will obtain a SAFE profit of 17 euros, regardless of the result:
- If the Barcelona wins: we have invested 183 euros, the prize is 100 x 2 = 200 euros, we get a profit of 17 euros
- If the Barcelona is tied or loses: invested: 183 euros, prize = 83 x 2.4 = 200 euros, gain 17 euros
- Observe that the probabilities of the quotas handled are 50% and 42%, whose sum is 92%.
Again, this situation will occur in cases where two bookmakers have two opposite results unbalanced. With this double operation we are helping them balance their positions by placing us against the majority of bettors.
The concept of sports trading also comes from the stock market. It consists, in the purest style of stock market speculation, in negotiating with the temporary evolution of the shares of a party. As we have Sports Trading commented before, the bookmakers move their quotas dynamically as they settle the bets to ensure that they compensate each other, and they get their benefit from the spread.
A: The most obvious situation of this evolution of quotas is during live matches. Take as an example our clash between Real Sociedad and Betis. Let’s imagine that the match starts with a goalless draw, is very tight, and we think that it is very likely to end like that. We place a bet on the tie, let’s say with a quota 3. After 20 minutes, if the score has not moved, the quota will have been reduced to say 2.4, since the probability that the game ends in a tie will have increased. If now the game opens and we estimate that either team can score, we can choose to close our position and winning the difference of odds, in two possible ways
How to Bet Successfully on Football
- Betting simultaneously on the two complementary results (it should be ensured that the margin implicit in these other quotas allows it)
- Selling our tie position, or in stock terms, putting us short to tie
B: This second option is certainly cleaner, but the only betting house with a real market that allows us to be the brokers offering the bets is Betfair, which is why it is the ideal operator for trading exchange bets. We have made a complete analysis about Betfair, which you can consult in the previous link.
All these methods are simple to list, but not easy to execute. They require enormous effort and dedication to get them up and running successfully. In any case, the elaboration of the strategy of entry and exit in the bets is not the only indispensable requirement to earn real money. The reduction of margins or optimization of spreads, and the proper management of our banking or to say it in terms of investment, the money management of the bets, are also indispensable to grow our portfolio and optimize the profit in the bets. And all this is useless without the proper psychological control of our emotions.
But these are other stories, which should be told at the time. We will dedicate these entries to these topics.
Bonus: A Tip to WIN from the Start
TRY OUR PAID BETTING TIPS
The exposed methods will give you profitability in your continued operation. But as we have seen, in most cases, betting involves risks. But there is a way to start playing with benefits, without assumed risks. It is about taking advantage of the subscription bonuses offered by the betting houses. Below we leave you a selection of the best. Click on them, register and WIN !